profile assessment embedded into the Bayesian framework. Chiara
La revue MODULAD, numéro 36, Juillet 2007
Adverse events in organizations
are more than a serious concern. Over the last
few years the awareness of this problem has raised and different
organizational solutions have been tried. We focus on
the problem of managing operational and clinical risks, in terms
of events that influence the success of service delivery.
This paper is aimed at proposing risk
management as the basic methodological approach to deal with adverse
events and risks.
We propose Bayesian networks (BNs) to assess risk profiles given
a context of application and benchmarks by Bayesian decisional
theory to evaluate the profiles, i.e. defining the acceptability of them.
The method is described both at a theoretical and an empirical level,
thanks to its application to health care (haemodialysis
department) and banking field. The occurrences of these top events
are modeled by Bayesian networks which gather posterior risk profiles
for each patient or banking business line. The comparison
of them with a reference risk profile is input for decision
making. BNs augmented with decisional nodes and scenario analysis
complete the risk management process. The ultimate goal
is to improve risk profile and, consequently, service supply quality in the organization.
Download paper : Risk
profile assessment embedded into the Bayesian framework
Keywords: Bayesian network, Distance
measure, Bayesian decision theory, Risk
management, Risk assessment, Predictive risk profile,
Operational risk, Clinical